「石油ピーク」と「細る氷河」:知るほどに危機感が増す「ピークオイル」

世界的に読まれている「Party’s Over」で有名なR.ハインベルグの見解、The Closer We Get, the Worse It Looksは一読の価値があります。朝日新聞(11月25日)の「細る氷河」を理解するためにも。

これは石油ピークと温暖化運動の対比、分析でもあります。見出しはBridging Peak Oil and Climate Change Activism、そのホームページの文は現在、もっとも総合的な見解といえます。

温暖化は連日報道され、その危機感が増幅されますが、石油ピークは政府も含めて何故か黙殺される傾向にありますが、その緊急性、日常生活への影響は遥かに大きいのです、特に日本においては。すでにガソリン、パンなどの食品は大幅に値上がり、これは石油ピークが直接的な原因です。アメリカのコーンからのバイオ燃料、という間違った動きも大きな原因です。

一色に染まった社会は、モノが見えなくなります。温暖化が全てではない、石油ピークとの戦略、論理の整合を取り、実効のある政策をとることです。日本は個性的な思考を出る釘として排除する。これで日本は繰り返し失敗してきました。太平洋戦争もそうでした。
今からでも遅くはないのです、自分でよく考え、流行に迎合しないこと、それには論理的なハインベルグの見解が参考になります。

朝日新聞、「細る氷河、ヒマラヤ湖拡大」の大きな一面記事、いつもの温暖化論ですが、その対策は「脱浪費、無駄をしない」そして「もったいない」。成すべきことはもう分かっている。



The Closer We Get, the Worse It Looks: January 8, 2007
By Richard Heinberg
Bridging Peak Oil and Climate Change Activism

The problems of Climate Change and Peak Oil both result from societal dependence on fossil fuels. But just how the impacts of these two problems relate to one another, and how policies to address them should differ or overlap, are questions that have so far not been adequately discussed.

Despite the fact that they are closely related, the two issues are in many respects dissimilar. Climate Change has to do with carbon emissions and their effects-including the impacts on human societies from rising sea levels, widespread and prolonged droughts, habitat loss, extreme weather events, and so on. Peak Oil, on the other hand, has to do with coming shortfalls in the supply of fuels on which society has become overwhelmingly dependent-leading certainly to higher prices for oil and its many products, and perhaps to massive economic disruption and more oil wars. Thus the first has more directly to do with the environment, the second with human society and its dependencies and vulnerabilities. At the most superficial level, we could say that Climate Change is an end-of-tailpipe problem, while Peak Oil is an into-fuel-tank problem.

Because of this crucial divergence, the training and priorities of people who study one problem often differ from those of people who study the other. Most advocates for the Peak Oil concept-sometimes known as "depletionists"-are energy experts, economists, journalists, urban planners, or workers retired from the oil industry (usually geologists or petroleum engineers). Among climate analysts and activists there are more environmentalists, fewer energy experts, and far fewer retired oil industry employees. It is my experience that, when placed in the same room together, the two groups often talk past one another..........(中略)
.................Perhaps, for both groups, with a stronger potential for motivating the public will come the courage to tell a truth that few policy makers want to hear: energy efficiency and curtailment will almost certainly have to be the world's dominant responses to both issues..........
(以下略)
[PR]
by tikyuu_2006 | 2007-11-25 04:54 | エネルギー、環境
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