地球温暖化IPCCのエネルギー予測は見直す必要がある、勿論温暖化予測も

IPCCの温暖化予測は、原点でこれからのエネルギー消費構造が基礎となっている。だがこれは石油ピークなど、科学的なエネルギー需給についての学識を十分反映していない

ASPOなどの科学者は、IPCCの予測の最低ラインをも下回るエネルギー供給が精一杯と考えている。それが下図の赤線である。当然、今後の温暖化のレベル、海水準の上昇予測に大きく影響する。
2100年の温度上昇はIPCCの最低とされる0.8゜C程度となる。今更ながら温暖化問題にも、真の科学が必要のようである。欧米の情報をいつまでも鵜呑にしていては、ポスト京都など、国際的な場で判断を誤る怖れがある
次の図はIPCCとASPOなど、エネルギー供給可能性について見解に相違があること示す。詳細は下記「more」ご参照。
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IPCC reports 2001 and 2007 are based on 40 energy scenarios (SRES) designed by IIASA on mostly unrealistic grounds (that I described already in an IIASA workshop in 2001 in particular for gas dreaming of methane hydrates). These 40 scenarios for 2100 range from 12 to 66 Gtoe, with an average of 37 Gtoe, meaning that the gap to fill beyond fossil fuels (at 4 Gtoe/a) could be 33 Gtoe ! 。 J.Laherrere(ASPO)
The temperature rise is a maximum of 0.8゜C in 2100.The sea-level rise is a maximum of 120mm in 2200。  Dave Rutledge(Caltech)

J.Laherrere's Conclusion
 The consuming society thinks it needs growth to be happy. It is understandable therefore that everything is presented in order to give hopes for growth.
 The goal of the oil companies is to make profit. They have no obligation to publish data, beyond that legally required of them. They prefer to keep information confidential, partly because it would be useful to competitor, and they prefer to publish what improves their image.
 Government agencies follow the policy of every government that promises that tomorrow will be better than today and relies on growth to solve all future problems. Future oil and gas demand is overestimated because the estimates assume cheap prices and large resources.
 There are two or three different and parallel worlds involved in estimating oil reserves. They are sometimes described as pessimists and optimists, but they are neither. One world comprises oil executives who gained the freedom to speak when retired, and had experience and access to confidential technical data. The other world comprises « academic writers » and/or economists, who talk about future miracles of technology (but refusing to listen to technicians) and rely on published data which are mainly political. There are also “theoretical writers” who deal only with theories and wishful thinking. They present ideas as facts, and reject facts as confusing.
 The oil industry follows archaic and poor practices in reporting data for both production and reserves because confidentiality, conservatism and fear of the impact on the stock market. Forecasts cannot be more unreliable than the underlying basic data. However data on past discoveries and production shows that oil and gas liquids will peak before 2010, and that natural gas will peak around 2030.

 The IPCC assumptions on energy up to 2100 are accordingly unrealistic being based on cheap and abundant oil and gas. Good estimates of oil reserves need good data, which are almost impossible to obtain even where records are in the public domain as in the Federal Gulf of Mexico where the USDOI/MMS data shows unpardonable mistakes. It is important as a matter of urgency that the oil industry and the governmental agencies start to realise that the main priority now is to improve the world database. Indeed, that was the goal of a recent meeting in Bangkok (April 2-3) between six organisations and 20 producing and consuming countries.

 The ideal is to find an organisation, which is apolitical, in which consumers, and producers can trust. I do not see any organisation that complies with the necessary qualities. IIASA could one possibility. IIASA has to show that it can do it.
[PR]
by tikyuu_2006 | 2007-07-14 10:42 | エネルギー、環境
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